This model is an efficient tool to help you measure shifts in rail markets that may result from mergers, large scale abandonments, line sales and purchases, or the cancellation of joint rates and through routes.
The DNS Traffic Diversion Model uses an expert systems approach to predicting changes in traffic flows. The expertise of railroad marketing staff is digested into diversion rules, comparing historic and potential new routes. The model develops candidate diverted routes using the DNS Rail Network, and then applies the diversion rules to estimate the probable share of traffic diverted. Samples of diversions are reviewed, and the rules are calibrated and modified in an iterative fashion. Using the calibrated division formula, new carrier divisions are predicted.
Using the DNS reporting tools, all changes in operating and revenue tools, as well as any detail available from the traffic sample, can be reported using either Market Analysis Programming System (MAPS), the DNS Interactive Graphics Package, or through customized programs. Examples of reports include changes by commodity or junction, carmiles by car type, or plots of line densities. Files can be produced for import into database or spreadsheet programs.
The computerized approach to traffic diversion allows the consistent application of the same methodology to a large number of potential scenarios on a cost-effective basis. The rules- based approach allows for broad management studies and the in-depth detail needed for regulatory studies and litigation support.
The Crew Requirements Model (CRM) is used to determine the minimum number of labor crews required to operate all trains for a given traffic volume, crew districting arrangement, an a set of work rule parameters.
A traffic data base is provided by the client railroad. Either actual traffic for a sample period is used, or CRM can develop the traffic data base from a schedule of trains.
CRM is driven from a number of tables. Default tables are developed by the model and modified by the user. Tables include crew districts, operating and deadhead milages (defaults are developed by the DNS Network Model), home terminals, assigned crews, and work rules. After the tables have been modified, the model simulates the actual crew assignment process to find the minimum number of crews required for each crew district. Sensitivities to crew district arrangements, work rules, and crew assignments are developed by modifying the tables and repeating the programs.
CRM provides summary totals for each scenario, totals by district and by crews, as well as a detailed log of all assignments made. The log can be read by other database and spreadsheet programs for further analysis and costing.
CRM allows rapid analysis of crew requirements under different operating plans and work rules, as well as planning for service interruption and a tool for labor negotiations.
OCM is a "bottoms up" managerial methodology for analysis of operations and costs.
It approaches the development of costs for a shipment by (1) developing the costs of the various activities performed on the railroad at specific locations, (2) allocating these and providing you with tool for determining actual costs of a shipment, and (3) breaking down projected costs by function and location -- under various traffic or revenue forecasts.
OCM uses traffic data such as the rail carload waybill sample or other data furnished by you. The data is aggregated into movement groups having the same commercial factors, such as origin-destination, commodity group, equipment type, and number of loads and tons. These movement groups are flowed over a detailed rail network model in accordance with an operating plan and generate the operating statistics associated with each movement. If the routes that are the basis for such operating statistics don't exist, OCM develops such routes, which are correlated against the carrier's operating time tables and dispatch sheets. The rail network is defined by the exact rail lines, yards, stations and terminal facilities that are used in individual carriers operations. This refined rail network and expansive traffic sample are the basis of site-specific economic costs generated by the model. You can develop costs at any level (e.g., Interstate Commerce Commission account) for each station, line, and train.
The information will help you determine the relative efficiency of various operations, markets requiring investment or disinvestment, and the costs attributable to different service levels.
The columns identify statistics and costs. The rows may represent movements, trains, yards, lines, or other aspects of the operation. OCM provides a method for moving data from one spreadsheet to another. Therefore, one spreadsheet can contain numbers of cars, gross tonnage, etc. for each train, together with the various costs associated with each train. Another can contain the number of cars, net and gross tonnage, etc. for each shipment.
For example, the fuel costs of a train can be allocated to the shipments, using the train as the basis of each shipment's portion of the gross tonnage on the train. A similar process can be used for another train's costs and for yard and line costs.
OCM is very flexible and can be extended to other businesses having multiple and interdependent profit or cost centers. Other modes of transportation, communications systems, and complex industrial production functions are examples of additional areas where OCM can benefit you.
MAPS is a user-friendly and interactive program that permits rapid access to large traffic databases. Its methodology can be extended to other commercial databases having complicated revenue and market information.
The modular nature of the program will allow you to access a single file by any of the large number of variables contained on a transportation waybill. These might include a station name, station number, rail carrier name, rail carrier number, county, state, 2- to 7-digit commodity code, interline junction, car type, car number, and other factors to help you determine the size, diversity or competitive structure of your market.
This eliminates the need to reprogram a different variable or set of variables that control the analysis each time. MAPS asks you what database to examine, what information to select, and the logic to use in selecting the information. Waybills containing the variables you'd select are automatically identified in the database and can be made available for costing under a separate routine. Other factors contained in those waybills can be displayed in a report you're able to design.
For example, you may wish to identify all traffic that originated at a particular station and moved in box cars. MAPS will select only those waybills having these two essential characteristics. You are then able to design a report format showing the distribution of cars by tons loaded, commodities transported, destination station, origin carrier or other market characteristics you'd want to explore.
MAPS can be used with the DNS network model to identify traffic using specified lines. Densities of selected traffic can be exposed to the DNS graphics programs.
"Help" capability is available for each question, with added emphasis on market definition and operating commands.
The Q and A format is so simple; it can even be used by those with no prior computer experience.
This model is a flexible, reliable, easy-to-operate microcomputer software package for rail transportation costing using the ICC Uniform Rail Costing System (URCS).
The DNS microURCS PC Costing Model produces rail shipment cost results, using unit costs provided with the package and your description of the shipment. If you don't know the particulars of the shipment, the model has a set of backup inputs for your help. In a matter of minutes, you can produce results, which can help to save money.
The cost results are available in several levels of detail to help you understand where the money is going and why. You'll be able to determine transportation problem areas and analyze new approaches to correct them.
In addition to understanding transportation costs, you'll be able to manage the increasingly important product distribution aspects of your business. You'll be geared to Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) rate cases, transportation contract negotiations, transportation policy analysis, and corporate management cost systems.
DNS microURCS will provide numerous benefits including timely results, flexible analytical capabilities using your existing staff, and reliable cost information. Would you like to make informed decisions on the actual cost of transportation? This system can help you develop, implement and maintain successful transportation systems.
With on-site access, you can make quick calculations that would otherwise require either a mainframe or a long, tedious effort. This system will "listen" to your input, present alternative values, and then compute the cost of using the input you've selected.
This feature will let you see what is taking place. Using the information that appears on the screen, you'll be able to identify the most important aspects of your rail shipping situation and plan appropriate management action.
With this model you'll be able to select the routing and carriers over which your traffic will move. The model provides carrier-specific Rail Form A costs as the final output.
The routes, junctions and railroads you want to handle your traffic are queried. If you were to select a junction that no longer exists (due to cancellation of joint rates or other commercial actions), you'll be advised which junctions are still open between the railroads over which you wish to route the traffic.
You'll be able to input the origin and destination stations of your movement without using cumbersome tables, carrier numbers or conversion tables. If more than one railroad serves the same station, you'll simply identify the railroad you want and automatically retrieve the appropriate costs and cost your movement. If you don't specify the route, the model will automatically identify and display the most efficient operating route.
You'll be able to control the costing process. If you wish to make adjustments to the route or evaluate alternative routes, railroads, car types or shipment sizes, you'll be "prompted" for a response. Further, the model opens the "black box" of costing, which helps you understand and manage the transportation aspects of your business.
This model will aid you in calculating the economic costs associated with the selection of truck or rail modes. It includes rail-costing and truck-costing programs with an adjustment reflecting the "service premium" or inventory value associated with a given commodity group.
You simply provide the origin and destination of the movement, the distance, the commodity description, the van or trailer type in which the commodity will move, and the status. Inflation factors, cost of capital, and circuity can be added. Otherwise, the values inherent to the model are used.
The output compares the total costs of delivering by rail with the total cost of delivering by truck, including such non-transportation costs as inventory, stock-out time, lost customers because of service delays, and damage during shipment. A comparison of total costs can help you evaluate whether a truck is competitive with the rail for your market.
If you combine the results of the Shipper Distribution Cost Model with the refined costs of DNS microURCS or routed Rail Form "A," it will aid a shipper or carrier in preparing for rate contract negotiations and, if necessary, for litigation.